It will be a long time until we see many EVs on the road. It could happen, but it won't. At over $40K the Chevy Volt will be way to expensive. I think that a 5 buck tax is the only way we can move to alternative fuels. Self guided conservation hasn't worked (and won't) with only a 5% decrease in use. Tax incentives are way to complicated and controversial. Import tax or blockades will only piss off our suppliers.
Clearly we need a path to alt. fuels because of pollution, global warming (possible), and keeping all that money home (foreign exports). Our cars are a good place to focus at about 45-55% of the petroleum use. With 65% imported oil we need to get 3x more efficiency out of our fleet than the current 19 MPG.
The options are:
- Ethanol which messes with food prices
- Methanol from coal has no existing distribution channel
- Biodiesel has a limited supply (only a few mcdonalds)
- Propane and diesel are good but only a small percentage more efficient 45-55% vs. 35-45%
- Hydrogen is a battery technology not a energy source
- So that leaves electric. With up to 89% efficient motors and a distribution network already in place it looks pretty good.
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